气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Wavelet Analysis-Support Vector Machine Coupled Models for Monthly Rainfall Forecasting in Arid Regions

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DOI	10.1007/s11269-014-0860-3
	Wavelet Analysis-Support Vector Machine Coupled Models for Monthly Rainfall Forecasting in Arid Regions
	Feng, Qi; Wen, Xiaohu; Li, Jianguo
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0920-4741
EISSN	1573-1650
卷号	29 期号:4
英文摘要	Accurate forecasting of rainfall is important in the effective management of water resources, particularly in arid regions. The wavelet analysis-support vector machine coupled model (WA-SVM) was evaluated for 1, 3 and 6 months ahead rainfall forecasting. The coupled model was obtained by combining the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and support vector machine (SVM) methods. Monthly rainfall data from the Qilian, Yeniugou and Tuole stations in Qilian Mountains, China were used to optimize the model. By comparing the model output with the observed data on the basis of the coefficient of correlation (R), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS), it was found that the performances of WA-SVM models for 1, 3 and 6-month ahead rainfall forecasting were good, and the models have forecasted the rainfall values with reasonable accuracy in all the statistical indices during testing period. Relative to the performance of regular SVM models, we show that the WA-SVM model demonstrates superior accuracy among the SVM models in forecasting rainfall at all tested lead times, probably due to a wavelet transform effect on the SVM predictive ability. The WA-SVM model was also compared with conventional ANN models, and the WA-SVM model was found to be significantly superior. The results of the study indicate that the WA-SVM model is preferable and can be applied successfully because it provides high accuracy and reliability for multi-time ahead monthly rainfall forecasting.
关键词	Discrete wavelet transforms Support vector machine Rainfall Arid regions Forecasting
学科领域	Engineering; Water Resources
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
来源期刊	WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/111816
作者单位	Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Regions Environm & Engn Res Inst, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Feng, Qi,Wen, Xiaohu,Li, Jianguo. Wavelet Analysis-Support Vector Machine Coupled Models for Monthly Rainfall Forecasting in Arid Regions[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2015,29(4).
APA	Feng, Qi,Wen, Xiaohu,&Li, Jianguo.(2015).Wavelet Analysis-Support Vector Machine Coupled Models for Monthly Rainfall Forecasting in Arid Regions.WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,29(4).
MLA	Feng, Qi,et al."Wavelet Analysis-Support Vector Machine Coupled Models for Monthly Rainfall Forecasting in Arid Regions".WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 29.4(2015).