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DOI10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.05.006
A novel framework for development and optimisation of future electricity scenarios with high penetration of renewables and storage
Gaete-Morales, Carlos1,2; Gallego-Schmid, Alejandro1,3; Stamford, Laurence1; Azapagic, Adisa1
发表日期2019
ISSN0306-2619
EISSN1872-9118
卷号250页码:1657-1672
英文摘要

Although electricity supply is still dominated by fossil fuels, it is expected that renewable sources will have a much larger contribution in the future due to the need to mitigate climate change. Therefore, this paper presents a new framework for developing Future Electricity Scenarios (FuturES) with high penetration of renewables. A multi-period linear programming model has been created for power-system expansion planning. This has been coupled with an economic dispatch model, PowerGAMA, to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of the developed scenarios while matching supply and demand. Application of FuturES is demonstrated through the case of Chile which has ambitious plans to supply electricity using only renewable sources. Four cost-optimal scenarios have been developed for the year 2050 using FuturES: two Business as usual (BAU) and two Renewable electricity (RE) scenarios. The BAU scenarios are unconstrained in terms of the technology type and can include all 11 options considered. The RE scenarios aim to have only renewables in the mix, including storage. The results show that both BAU scenarios have a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) lower than, or equal to, today's costs ($72.7-77.3 vs $77.6/MWh) and include 81-90% of renewables. The RE scenarios are slightly more expensive than today's costs ($81-87/MWh). The cumulative investment for the BAU scenarios is $123-$145 bn, compared to $147-$157 bn for the RE. The annual investment across the scenarios is estimated at $4.0 +/- 0.4 bn. Both RE scenarios show sufficient flexibility in matching supply and demand, despite solar photovoltaics and wind power contributing around half of the total supply. Therefore, the FuturES framework is a powerful tool for aiding the design of cost-efficient power systems with high penetration of renewables.


WOS研究方向Energy & Fuels ; Engineering
来源期刊APPLIED ENERGY
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/102913
作者单位1.Univ Manchester, Sch Chem Engn & Analyt Sci, Sustainable Ind Syst, C16,Sackville St, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England;
2.German Inst Econ Res DIW Berlin, Dept Energy Transportat & Environm, Mohrenstr 58, D-10117 Berlin, Germany;
3.Univ Manchester, Sch Mech Aerosp & Civil Engn, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, HG1,Pariser Bldg,Sackville St, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Gaete-Morales, Carlos,Gallego-Schmid, Alejandro,Stamford, Laurence,et al. A novel framework for development and optimisation of future electricity scenarios with high penetration of renewables and storage[J],2019,250:1657-1672.
APA Gaete-Morales, Carlos,Gallego-Schmid, Alejandro,Stamford, Laurence,&Azapagic, Adisa.(2019).A novel framework for development and optimisation of future electricity scenarios with high penetration of renewables and storage.APPLIED ENERGY,250,1657-1672.
MLA Gaete-Morales, Carlos,et al."A novel framework for development and optimisation of future electricity scenarios with high penetration of renewables and storage".APPLIED ENERGY 250(2019):1657-1672.
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