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DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0832.1
Climate Change Amplification of Natural Drought Variability: The Historic Mid-Twentieth-Century North American Drought in a Warmer World
Cook, Benjamin I.1,2; Seager, Richard2; Williams, A. Park3; Puma, Michael J.4; McDermid, Sonali5; Kelley, Maxwell1; Nazarenko, Larissa1
发表日期2019
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
卷号32期号:17页码:5417-5436
英文摘要

In the mid-twentieth century (1948-57), North America experienced a severe drought forced by cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). If these SSTs recurred, it would likely cause another drought, but in a world substantially warmer than the one in which the original event took place. We use a 20-member ensemble of the GISS climate model to investigate the drought impacts of a repetition of the mid-twentieth-century SST anomalies in a significantly warmer world. Using observed SSTs and mid-twentieth-century forcings (Hist-DRGHT), the ensemble reproduces the observed precipitation deficits during the cold season (October-March) across the Southwest, southern plains, and Mexico and during the warm season (April-September) in the southern plains and the Southeast. Under analogous SST forcing and enhanced warming (Fut-DRGHT, approximate to 3 K above preindustrial), cold season precipitation deficits are ameliorated in the Southwest and southern plains and intensified in the Southeast, whereas during the warm season precipitation deficits are enhanced across North America. This occurs primarily from greenhouse gas-forced trends in mean precipitation, rather than changes in SST teleconnections. Cold season runoff deficits in Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified over the Southeast, but otherwise similar to Hist-DRGHT over the Southwest and southern plains. In the warm season, however, runoff and soil moisture deficits during Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified across the southern United States, a consequence of enhanced precipitation deficits and increased evaporative losses due to warming. Our study highlights how internal variability and greenhouse gas-forced trends in hydroclimate are likely to interact over North America, including how changes in both precipitation and evaporative demand will affect future drought.


WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/102305
作者单位1.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA;
2.Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Div Ocean & Climate Phys, Palisades, NY 10964 USA;
3.Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Tree Ring Lab, Palisades, NY USA;
4.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY USA;
5.NYU, Dept Environm Studies, New York, NY USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Cook, Benjamin I.,Seager, Richard,Williams, A. Park,et al. Climate Change Amplification of Natural Drought Variability: The Historic Mid-Twentieth-Century North American Drought in a Warmer World[J],2019,32(17):5417-5436.
APA Cook, Benjamin I..,Seager, Richard.,Williams, A. Park.,Puma, Michael J..,McDermid, Sonali.,...&Nazarenko, Larissa.(2019).Climate Change Amplification of Natural Drought Variability: The Historic Mid-Twentieth-Century North American Drought in a Warmer World.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(17),5417-5436.
MLA Cook, Benjamin I.,et al."Climate Change Amplification of Natural Drought Variability: The Historic Mid-Twentieth-Century North American Drought in a Warmer World".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.17(2019):5417-5436.
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