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DOI10.1073/pnas.1902046116
Historical reconstruction unveils the risk of mass mortality and ecosystem collapse during pancontinental megadrought
Godfree, Robert C.; Knerr, Nunzio; Godfree, Denise; Busby, John; Robertson, Bruce; Encinas-Viso, Francisco
发表日期2019
ISSN0027-8424
卷号116期号:31页码:15580-15589
英文摘要

An important new hypothesis in landscape ecology is that extreme, decade-scale megadroughts can be potent drivers of rapid, macroscale ecosystem degradation and collapse. If true, an increase in such events under climate change could have devastating consequences for global biodiversity. However, because few megadroughts have occurred in the modern ecological era, the taxonomic breadth, trophic depth, and geographic pattern of these impacts remain unknown. Here we use ecohistorical techniques to quantify the impact of a record, pancontinental megadrought period (1891 to 1903 CE) on the Australian biota. We show that during this event mortality and severe stress was recorded in >45 bird, mammal, fish, reptile, and plant families in arid, semi-arid, dry temperate, and Mediterranean ecosystems over at least 2.8 million km(2) (36%) of the Australian continent. Trophic analysis reveals a bottom-up pattern of mortality concentrated in primary producer, herbivore, and omnivore guilds. Spatial and temporal reconstruction of premortality rainfall shows that mass mortality and synchronous ecosystem-wide collapse emerged in multiple geographic hotspots after 2 to 4 y of severe (>40%) and intensifying rainfall deficits. However, the presence of hyperabundant herbivores significantly increased the sensitivity of ecosystems to overgrazing-induced meltdown and permanent ecosystem change. The unprecedented taxonomic breadth and spatial scale of these impacts demonstrate that continental-scale megadroughts pose a major future threat to global biodiversity, especially in ecosystems affected by intensive agricultural use, trophic simplification, and invasive species.


WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
来源期刊PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/100802
作者单位CSIRO, Natl Res Collect Australia, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Godfree, Robert C.,Knerr, Nunzio,Godfree, Denise,et al. Historical reconstruction unveils the risk of mass mortality and ecosystem collapse during pancontinental megadrought[J],2019,116(31):15580-15589.
APA Godfree, Robert C.,Knerr, Nunzio,Godfree, Denise,Busby, John,Robertson, Bruce,&Encinas-Viso, Francisco.(2019).Historical reconstruction unveils the risk of mass mortality and ecosystem collapse during pancontinental megadrought.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,116(31),15580-15589.
MLA Godfree, Robert C.,et al."Historical reconstruction unveils the risk of mass mortality and ecosystem collapse during pancontinental megadrought".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 116.31(2019):15580-15589.
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