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DOI | 10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0136.1 |
Climate Scientists' Wide Prediction Intervals May Be More Likely but Are Perceived to Be Less Certain | |
Lohre, Erik1,2; Juanchich, Marie3; Sirota, Miroslav3; Teigen, Karl Halvor1,4; Shepherd, Theodore G.5 | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 1948-8327 |
EISSN | 1948-8335 |
卷号 | 11期号:3页码:565-575 |
英文摘要 | The use of interval forecasts allows climate scientists to issue predictions with high levels of certainty even for areas fraught with uncertainty, since wide intervals are objectively more likely to capture the truth than narrow intervals. However, wide intervals are also less informative about what the outcome will be than narrow intervals, implying a lack of knowledge or subjective uncertainty in the forecaster. In six experiments, we investigate how laypeople perceive the (un)certainty associated with wide and narrow interval forecasts, and find that the preference for accuracy (seeing wide intervals as "objectively" certain) versus informativeness (seeing wide intervals as indicating "subjective" uncertainty) is influenced by contextual cues (e.g., question formulation). Most important, we find that people more commonly and intuitively associate wide intervals with uncertainty than with certainty. Our research thus challenges the wisdom of using wide intervals to construct statements of high certainty in climate change reports. |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
来源期刊 | WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY
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文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/100015 |
作者单位 | 1.Simula Res Lab, Oslo, Norway; 2.Inland Norway Univ Appl Sci, Dept Psychol, Lillehammer, Norway; 3.Univ Essex, Dept Psychol, Colchester, Essex, England; 4.Univ Oslo, Dept Psychol, Oslo, Norway; 5.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lohre, Erik,Juanchich, Marie,Sirota, Miroslav,et al. Climate Scientists' Wide Prediction Intervals May Be More Likely but Are Perceived to Be Less Certain[J],2019,11(3):565-575. |
APA | Lohre, Erik,Juanchich, Marie,Sirota, Miroslav,Teigen, Karl Halvor,&Shepherd, Theodore G..(2019).Climate Scientists' Wide Prediction Intervals May Be More Likely but Are Perceived to Be Less Certain.WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY,11(3),565-575. |
MLA | Lohre, Erik,et al."Climate Scientists' Wide Prediction Intervals May Be More Likely but Are Perceived to Be Less Certain".WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY 11.3(2019):565-575. |
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