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Good morning and welcome to The Climate 202. Our thoughts and prayers go out to those affected by the mass shooting in Texas.

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A key Senate panel on Wednesday will vet President Biden's nominee to lead the Environmental Protection Agency's air office — a pivotal role for the administration's climate agenda.

But it's unclear whether Joseph Goffman will have enough support to advance out of the Environment and Public Works Committee, despite attracting the unlikely backing of a union representing coal miners.

The details: Goffman, a veteran of the EPA under President Barack Obama, has been the acting boss of the agency's Office of Air and Radiation since January 2021. Biden nominated him to helm the office permanently in March.

With the Environment and Public Works panel split 10-10 along party lines, Goffman would need the support of all 10 Democrats and at least one Republican to advance to the full Senate. But a GOP vote may be hard to find.

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.), the top Republican on the Environment and Public Works Committee, told The Climate 202 that she remains concerned about Goffman's role in crafting the Clean Power Plan, Obama's signature proposal to cut planet-warming pollution from power plants.

“There's some frustration by me,” Capito said in an interview Tuesday. “He knows. We've talked.”

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), another member of the Environment and Public Works panel, said he has similar concerns after meeting with Goffman.

“I'm leaning against supporting him,” Cramer told The Climate 202. “I've tried to keep an open mind. I talked to him briefly. But his role in the Obama Clean Power Plan is troubling to me. It was illegal; it was an overreach.”

The Supreme Court in 2016 stayed the Clean Power Plan before it could take effect, although the justices never found the rule to be unlawful. After a federal appeals court scrapped the Trump administration’s weaker replacement rule last year, the Biden administration is drafting a new regulation from scratch.

Meanwhile, Sen. Cynthia M. Lummis (R-Wyo.) in January placed a hold on the nominations of Goffman and two other EPA nominees over the agency's approach to curbing haze-forming pollution from her state's largest coal-fired power plant.

“Senator Lummis has placed holds on all of Biden’s EPA nominees as she continues to discuss the regional haze issue that is impacting Wyoming,” Lummis spokeswoman Abegail Cave said in an email. “She will place a hold on Joe Goffman if he is reported out of committee.”

Even if a Republican does support Goffman, it's unclear whether Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) — one of the most vulnerable senators up for reelection this year — will vote for the nominee. A Kelly spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.

In the event that the Environment and Public Works Committee deadlocks over Goffman's nomination, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) could file a petition to discharge the nomination to the full Senate. 

An individual familiar with the matter said they expected Schumer to bring the nomination to the floor in June or July. But that timeline depends on when — and whether — the chamber votes on a potential reconciliation deal or a China competitiveness bill, according to the individual, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private deliberations.

Once Goffman's nomination reached the floor, it's possible that he would garner support from Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), a centrist who voted to confirm Ketanji Brown Jackson, Biden's Supreme Court nominee.

However, Collins told The Climate 202 that she wasn't familiar with Goffman's record. “I don't know anything about him,” she said in a brief interview Tuesday.

Regardless of his support on Capitol Hill, Goffman has attracted an unlikely coalition of industry backers.

The United Mine Workers of America, a union that has opposed policies to wean the nation off coal, sent a letter to the Environment and Public Works Committee last week praising Goffman's qualifications, including his experience at the EPA and Harvard University.

“We don't see eye to eye with Joe Goffman on everything that he says or does,” Phil Smith, a spokesman for the union, told The Climate 202. “But we have learned over the years that he will listen to what we have to say.”

The Edison Electric Institute, a trade association for investor-owned utilities, also sent a letter encouraging senators to confirm Goffman “without delay.” Emily Sanford Fisher, the trade group's general counsel, told The Climate 202 that she thinks Goffman is the right person to craft a new greenhouse gas rule for power plants.

“We feel confident that Joe will engage with us and other key stakeholders to come up with a rule that makes sense,” she said.

Extreme eventsNOAA predicts seventh-straight active Atlantic hurricane season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Tuesday forecast the seventh consecutive above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic, with 14 to 21 named storms and three to six major hurricanes, The Washington Post's Matthew Cappucci and Jason Samenow report. 

Scientists have linked rapidly intensifying hurricanes over the past few decades to unusually warm water temperatures fueled by human-caused climate change. In some parts of the Atlantic, water temperatures have reached 1 to 3 degrees above normal, increasing the chances of damage to coastal communities from strong winds and ocean surges. 

Communities of color in the Bay Area are exposed to 55 percent more nitrogen dioxide, which contributes to smog, than mostly White communities, according to air quality data released Tuesday by Aclima, a California-based tech company that measured the region’s air quality block by block for the first time, The Post's Darryl Fears and John Muyskens report.

Aclima sent low-emission vehicles equipped with sophisticated technology to drive around neighborhoods at least 20 times each. The study concluded that the farther the cars traveled from the Environmental Protection Agency’s stationary air monitors, the more they detected elevated levels of pollution that the fixed ones missed.

The findings confirm the experience of many Black, Latino, Asian, Native American and low-income White residents who have lived for decades with hazardous air pollution in and around their homes.

Shareholders threw their support behind Shell’s current climate strategy and rejected an activist proposal during the oil giant's annual general meeting on Tuesday, Shadia Nasralla and Ron Bousso report for Reuters. 

Shell's climate resolution received 80 percent of the votes, down from 89 percent last year, while the proposal from the activist group Follow This received 20 percent, down from 30 percent last year.

The company has said it intends to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, but critics including Follow This argue that Shell’s plan falls short of the 2015 Paris agreement. 

“Investors have given in to Shell’s narrative that the crisis created by the war in Ukraine overrides the climate crisis,” Follow This founder Mark van Baal said in a statement. 

The investors’ vote came a day after one of Shell’s consultants resigned, accusing the company in an email of “failing on a massive planetary scale” to limit climate risks, citing its plan to continue to expand fossil fuel extraction amid the war in Ukraine, Politico’s Zia Weise reports. 

The Navy and Marine Corps on Tuesday released a climate strategy that calls for drawing down an additional 5 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year by 2027 — equivalent to taking 1 million cars off the road. 

The Climate Action 2030 plan also recommends electrifying ground vehicles, deploying cyber-secure microgrids and increasing the share of carbon-free electricity at installations and bases.

“Climate change is one of the most destabilizing forces of our time, exacerbating other national security concerns and posing serious readiness challenges,” Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro said in a statement. “Our naval and amphibious forces are in the crosshairs of the climate crisis and this strategy provides the framework to empower us to meaningfully reduce the threat of climate change.”